Comparative Analysis of Forwards and Futures Contracts

Comparative Analysis of Forwards and Futures Contracts A Mauritian Perspective Abstract This research compares the OTC derivatives market with the exchange-traded derivatives market. Forwards contracts have been used as a representative for OTC markets and Futures for organised exchanges and the costs and benefits of each one have been analysed. This research has been done being with regard to the GBOT setting up in Mauritius. Forwards are frequently used contracts relative to others, in Mauritius. Hence, it is assumed that if the users have to shift to the GBOT, they will use futures contracts as a substitute for forwards since both have similar characteristics except that futures are more sophisticated than forwards. A survey has been done on the top one hundred and twenty companies in Mauritius out of which, only 70 have responded. The questionnaire aimed at determining the current derivatives position in Mauritius and a glance at the perception of the financial officers with respect to GBOT. Even though they believe that GBOT will benefit the country, they are unwilling to enter the market; while most of the respondents are unaware of GBOT and uncertain about the futures market and trade mechanism. Unexpectedly, it was found that some firms use futures for risk management. The results have been used to conclude whether it is viable for Mauritius to introduce an exchange and what measures can be taken to ensure that GBOT is successful. With respect to this research, it seems that the Mauritian market is not ready yet, to conceive this new development in its financial system but there are some measures that can be adopted to combat the inhibitors and there are much lessons to be learned from the record of derivatives mismanagement. List of Abbreviations AML Air Mauritius Company Limited CDS Central Depository and Settlement Company Limited CBOT Chicago Board of Trade CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange CFTC Commodity Futures Trading Commission EFP Exchange of Futures for Physical FSC Financial Services Commission FX Foreign Exchange GBOT Global Board Of Trade HSBC Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited MTM Mark-To-Market OTC Over-The-Counter SEM Stock Exchange of Mauritius STC State Trading Corporation S0 Spot price today ST Spot price at maturity USA United States of America 1.1 Introduction The presence of derivatives market has undoubtedly improved national productivity growth and standards of living. Alan Greenspan (Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, 2005) Derivatives have gained prominence in the past few decades and are today a vital element in finance. Although they are the latest addition to the financial world, they have been witnessing a high rate of success. They have undergone constant innovation and active trade, notwithstanding the fact that they have led to a more complex form of hedging. Electronic trading and settlement facility has revolutionised the global financial and commodity markets by attracting international investors and increasing liquidity. 1.2 Background Theory 1.2.1 Hedging Hedging is a form of insurance that uses derivatives to absorb financial risk by locking in a price for a particular good. Its essence pertains to the uncertainties associated in prices of goods. Since prices of goods cannot be predicted with certainty, people speculate. Gol (1980) states that when everyone expects a price rise, all opinions seem to converge over a price rise, such that, if speculators enter the futures market, they would also be buyers rather than sellers and their buying activity may further aggravate the price rise. Speculation helps in effective risk management but sometimes backfires; for instance, many airlines speculated a rise in fuel prices and hedged their exposure with derivatives. Unfortunately, the financial crisis 2007-2008 caused fuel prices to decrease considerably in the spot market, but the airlines had the obligation to honour their derivative contracts at relatively higher prices. 1.2.2 Derivatives market Derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from one or more underlying assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, interest rates, commodities and market indices; for example, an oil futures contract derives its value from the price of oil- oil being the underlying asset. Derivatives are used extensively in financial and non-financial institutions. Forward contracts are the basic derivatives that stemmed from the goods market, and have thereupon paved the way for other derivatives. Some goods traded through derivatives are base metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy products, foreign currencies, interest rate, and stock indices among others. Other includes contracts based on carbon, commodity indices, credit, fertilizer, housing, inflation, and weather. Source: Futures Industry Magazine 2009 For this research, commodities, assets, and goods are used interchangeably, irrespective of whether they are used in the financial, commodities or foreign exchange markets. 1.2.3 Types of derivatives There are two distinct groups of derivative instruments: forward-based products and option-based products. Forward-based products are termed linear derivatives as they offer a linear payoff and include futures, forwards, and swaps. Conversely, option-based products are non-linear derivatives since they offer a non-linear payoff and include puts, calls, caps, floors, and collars. Other derivatives, such as options on futures, swaptions, and forward caps, combine the features of both forward and option contracts. Derivatives trade in over-the-counter (OTC) markets or in organised exchanges. OTC trading occurs among a few dealers via phone or electronic messages. OTC contracts are mutual agreements made through private negotiations and transacted outside a trading platform. However, some OTC derivatives are cleared via exchanges (e.g. in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Swaps, forwards, and customised options are OTC contracts. Exchange-traded derivatives are standardised in terms of quantity and quality (the amount and quality of the good is fixed) and negotiation is not possible. Organised exchanges employ both open outcry system and electronic order matching systems and share similar purposes to securities exchanges. They design the contract terms and operate a clearinghouse, which acts as a guarantor, settles all contracts, and regulates trading. Large securities firms and commercial banks act as derivatives dealers. Futures and standardised options are traded on exchanges. 1.2.4 Players The three broad categories of traders in the derivatives market are hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs. Hedgers use derivatives to reduce the risks that they face from adverse movements in prices of goods while speculators take a position to realise gains with a relatively small initial outlay. Arbitrageurs enter the market to realise gains without risking their own capital. Conclusively, hedgers transfer their risk to speculators and arbitrageurs and thus, boost liquidity on the market. 1.3 Objective of Study A well-regulated organised derivatives market encourages a sustainable financial development and increases savings and investment in the long-run, thereby promoting economic growth. However, the concern is how and when to discern the time for its implementation in small economies. This dissertation aims at analysing the benefits and drawbacks of using forwards and futures contracts. Forwards contracts can be used by minority users, without major procedures and regulation. Contrarily, futures require significant concern and assistance of the government to support and ensure a good operating system. The research is carried out with regard to the commodities market being set up in Mauritius. Forwards laid the groundwork for futures, hence, both are treated simultaneously throughout this study. Futures (exchange-traded) are enhanced forms of forwards (OTC) but differing somewhat in the way they are traded. The costs and benefits of the two instruments are analysed and compared. This will indicate whether it is viable for Mauritius to introduce a derivatives exchange and suggests the measures that can be adopted to ensure that its objectives are attained. Swaps and options are excluded from the study because they operate differently and due to word constraint. Forwards and futures are relatively simpler and typically alike, thus, rendering comparison easier. 1.4 Overview of Remaining Chapters Chapter 2 deals with the literature review while Chapter 3 is an overview of the derivatives market in Mauritius. Chapter 4 covers the research methodology section. Chapter 5 presents the analysis and findings of the research, followed by Chapter 6, which concludes this study and includes some recommendations. chapter two: literature review 2.1 Importance of Derivatives Market Several factors such as size, leverage, asset-liability duration, and taxes amongst others, affect the hedging decision of a firm. The Miller and Modigliani theory posits that hedging is fruitless in perfect financial markets. In reality though, markets are imperfect and hedging alters a firms value by influencing its investment decisions. Bessembinder (1991) distinguishes that hedging corporate risk with forward contracts increases firms value by reducing incentives to under-invest. He also advocates that large institutions are more likely to use derivatives due to informational economies of scale. Likewise, Haushalter (2000) finds a positive correlation between hedging decision and total assets and characterises it as the economies of scale in information and transaction costs of hedging. Hedging also enables a firm to negotiate with its customers, creditors, and managers, which improves contract terms. A research on African countries suggests that volatile international capital flows have the tendency to destabilise shallow markets and precipitate a crisis if there is a change in investors appetite and urges adoption of stronger domestic policies and local derivatives markets for financial risk management purposes (Adelegan, 2009). Hedging is a zero-sum game; one does not gain from trade unless another faces a loss. The gain to the buyer will be exactly equal to the loss to the seller of the forward contract, whilst the gain to the seller will be exactly equal to the loss to the buyer. Hieronymus (1971) defines hedging as taking a position in a futures market that is equal in size and opposite to a predetermined position in the cash market. Hence, a loss in one market is offset by a gain in the other market. This principle works since cash prices and futures prices of a commodity are expected to converge as the contract reaches expiry. Anderson and Danthine ( 1981) define a pure hedge term equal to the risk-minimising futures position corresponding to a predetermined cash position. A hedger, thus, uses the possibilities offered by futures markets to minimise his risk. 2.2 Forwards Market A forward contract is a bilateral binding agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity and quality of an asset, at a pre-determined price and pre-determined future time. Normally, contracts specifying settlement in excess of 30 days after the trade date are forward contracts. Forwards are the first and simplest derivatives that sprouted in the sixteenth century in the agricultural markets, wherein they were used primarily to resist adverse price movements. Dong and Liu (2005) advocate that the equilibrium forward reduces commodity price risk; the buyer and seller will transact at the price specified in the contract, whatever the price of the underlying asset in the spot market at maturity. A forward agreement is somewhat like a legal contract, customised with respect to the needs of the particular buyers and sellers, obligating delivery of the underlying asset under the conditions specified in the contract. The buyers and sellers negotiate over the contract terms. Anderson and Danthine (1981) claim that, in the forwards market, speculators are assumed to be risk-neutral, bidding competitively to exercise arbitrage opportunities. 2.2.1 Benefits of Forward Contracts 2.2.1.1 Risk Management Typically, a forward contract alleviates financial risks, thereby protecting traders. There is no initial investment in the forwards market since cash changes hand only on settlement of the contract at maturity. This causes less volatility in cash transactions, rendering cash flows easy to manage. 2.2.1.2 Settlement Facility Cases wherein the seller defaults for some reason, contracts may be mutually settled in cash. Duffie (1989) finds that in practice, only a small fraction of forward positions are actually delivered while most are closed out before delivery by a cash settlement. Sometimes, initial traders are able to transfer their contracts to someone willing to take their obligation. Per se, it offers a certain degree of flexibility. 2.2.1.3 Trade Linkages and other benefits Forwards allows negotiation on the contracting terms, which benefits traders, builds up trust, and strengthens trade links between parties. Wolak (2007) analyses an electricity company and concludes that forward contracts reduce the cost of production as well as its volatility, and increase pro?t. Likewise, Dong and Liu (2005) show that forward contracts in non-storable goods benefit both producers and suppliers. 2.2.2 Costs of Forward Contracts 2.2.2.1 Counterparty Default Risk Forward contracts mitigate financial risks but give rise to counterparty risk (risk of default), which is one of the prominent risks in OTC derivatives. Counterparty risk can cause huge losses. 2.2.2.2 Transaction Costs In order to ensure guaranteed deals, parties with good credit ratings should be identified, which is a very costly task. Nevertheless, these firms do have a possibility to default for reasons such as insolvency or bankruptcy. An ideal illustration is the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank that has created the biggest turmoil in the worlds history; following which, more concern has shifted to the OTC market. 2.2.2.3 Legal procedures Once the terms and conditions of the contract are accepted, they must be adhered to otherwise legal procedures may entail. Forwards market is an unorganised form of trade with no ability to deal with conflicts other than seeking legal recourse that may be too costly. Influential and wealthy parties only may recourse to such practices. Besides, it causes damage to the dealers reputation. 2.2.2.4 Liquidity and Transparency issues There is no possibility of closing out or reversing a forward contract. Thus, forwards lack flexibility and liquidity and forward delivery is not guaranteed in the absence of a regulator. Additionally, since the contract involves only two entities, there is reduced transparency and possibility of mispricing the goods since not all the forces are at work. 2.2.2.5 Market Power and Bargaining Power Market power and bargaining power affect the capacity for negotiation along with the forward equilibrium price. As such, small investors with lesser power may suffer. Dong and Liu (2005) show that the forward equilibrium moves in favour of the participant with high market power, such that he gains from the contract. However, when negotiation costs are very high, both producers and buyers face a loss regardless of market power and use forward contracts for risk management rather than for gains. 2.2.2.6 Informational Inefficiency A study by Mahenc and Meunier ( 1983) stipulates that there is no proper information dissemination in the forward market but under conditions of imperfect information, forward trading indirectly creates efficiency in the spot market. The necessity to deal with the shortcomings of forward contracts led to the emergence of the futures market. 2.3 Futures Market A futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell a fixed amount of an asset at a pre-decided price and date. In this respect, futures share the same characteristics as forwards; for instance, they help buyers and sellers with long term planning by locking in a price. However, futures are more sophisticated than forwards. Financial futures were traded on shares of the Dutch East India Company in the seventeenth century, but modern futures markets originated in Japanese rice futures, which were traded in Osaka in the eighteenth century. Futures emerged with the grading system, which purported to ensure that at maturity, the quality of goods delivered was as specified in the contract, which eventually led to standardisation of futures contracts. Futures are standardised contracts in respect of quantity, quality, delivery date, and location. They trade on organised exchanges, which are responsible for setting the quantity, quality of the underlying asset in the contract. Moreover, the exchange sets the terms and conditions of the contract, which are non-negotiable by the traders. All investors are treated equally; small investors are also able to hedge without difficulty. 2.3.1 Structure of the Futures Market Futures exchanges share the same purpose as securities exchanges. They usually have an integrated clearinghouse for clearing and settlement facility. Brokers, who are also members of the exchange, are responsible to match the buy and sell orders without buyers meeting sellers and vice-versa. Only members are allowed to trade on the platform, thus, a non-member wishing to deal in futures, should trade through a broker. The exchange connects buyers and sellers worldwide, communicates and keeps parties joint and ensures compliance with the terms and conditions of the contracts. Exchanges use open outcry in pits or electronic order matching systems or some use both, such as The Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Some authors argue that the open outcry system is more liquid and transparent than the automated system. Traders need to deposit a margin with the exchange prior to trade. The demand for margin (a percentage of the value of the contract) is referred as collateral or as a good faith deposit (Gay, Hunter, and Kolb 1986). All traders are required to have a minimum stated sum of money in their accounts. Contracts are settled on a daily basis: the mark-to-market system (MTM) which affects the contract price. If price of contract increases on a particular day, the holder makes a profit, which he can withdraw from his account, whereas if price decreases, he makes a loss and the amount is deducted from his account. As such, he is required to deposit a margin, referred as a call margin, to replenish his account to the threshold level, known as the variation margining system. Futures contract protect the value of inventories and partly finances the cost of storage since the future price of a commodity is dependent upon its cost of carry (Future price = cash price +cost of carry). This helps to improve marketing policies, financial planning, and long-term forecasting of prices. If ST is expected to be higher than current S0, then the current futures price will be set at a high level relative to the current S0. Likewise, if ST is expected to be lower at maturity, current futures price is set low. 2.3.2 Benefits of Futures Contracts Fundamentally, futures market confers two main purposes: price discovery and price risk management. The market provides protection against default, manipulation, and abuse. 2.3.2.1 Risk Management and Settlement Guarantee Moser (1998) reckons that futures contracts counteract default risk and protect traders through a set of rules. Firstly, standardisation protects traders as it ensures that the quality of the goods delivered is as specified in the contract. Moreover, the exchange can order its members to produce their financial accounts for inspection if their solvency is doubted. In 1873, the CBOT decided to expel any member who refused to abide by this rule (Andreas 1894). The margining and MTM system also contribute to curtail counterparty default risk as traders are called to supplement their account for the losses incurred on their contracts within 24hours; failure to do so causes their positions to be liquidated. There is a settlement guarantee in case of default while a tight regulation ensures that manipulation and abuse is virtually absent. 2.3.2.2 Price Discovery Futures market is transparent; pricing of commodities are fair and manipulations very difficult. Electronic trading on the exchange platform pools together all forces affecting the price of a commodity, leading to price discovery mechanism, which improves efficiency and lowers costs. Technology renders the exchange highly competitive since the market reacts very fast; prices and transactions are monitored constantly while information is captured continuously and incorporated in the intrinsic value of a good. Telser and Higinbotham (1977) concur that, futures market pools trade from diverse area into a central market, thereby increasing the heterogeneity of potential transactions. They proclaim that futures are liquid as transaction occurs readily at mutually acceptable prices and that homogenisation and clarity of the terms and conditions boost liquidity. 2.3.2.3 Liquidity One need not possess the underlying asset to sell futures while one may not be in need of a commodity to buy futures. Speculators and arbitrageurs enter the futures market without possessing or the intention of buying the commodity. Thus, the transfer of risks to different players in the market increases liquidity and maintains the equilibrium in demand and supply. Telser and Higinbotham (1977) statistically demonstrate that as the number of traders in the market increases, the market clearing prices become normal. Futures can be squared-off (reverse a position) without negotiation, thus making delivery non-mandatory. Positions can also be rolled-over. If period for hedge is later than the expiry date of the current futures contract, the hedger can rollover the hedge position by closing the existing position in a futures contract and simultaneously taking a new position in another futures contract with a latter expiry date. 2.3.2.4 Transactional and Informational Efficiency Futures market increases the informational efficiency of cash market and promotes import and export competitiveness. Cox (1976) empirically demonstrates that futures trading increases traders information about forces affecting supply and demand. His analysis rejects the claim that futures trading impose costs on producers, consumers, and others who handle the physical commodity. Additionally, evidences from more fully informed traders suggest that futures trade increases efficiency in spot markets. 2.3.2.5 Increase Export Competitiveness When entering forward contracts, exporters do not, usually, possess the entire stocks for export. Futures market enables them to hedge their projected purchase, until they have to buy in the physical market for exporting. Taking a position in the futures market will help to offset the gain/loss in the physical market; that is, at maturity the net loss/gain in futures market offsets the gain/loss in the physical market. Thus, exporters can accept contracts with longer duration and increase their competitiveness. 2.3.2.6 Offsetting gains and losses in the physical market Futures market also allows a hedger to take a position in the futures market opposite to the position he takes in an over-the-counter market. Such a transaction is termed: exchange of futures for physical (EFP). The OTC and futures positions should be for the same underlying assets or at least similar in terms of value and quantity. This results in the flexibility of customising the physical market with respect to the needs of traders, parallel to the OTC market and at the same time enjoying settlement guarantee in an exchange. Usually, margin requirements for EFP transactions are lower. EFP may seem appealing but is inefficient in fair pricing. Exchange Officials apprehend that EFPs would harm the futures market by reducing volume and liquidity and inhibit fair price discovery. 2.3.2.7 Diversification of portfolios Futures on commodities serve to diversify portfolios, since they are less volatile than financial securities. Bodie and Rosansky (1980) report an average excess return of 9.5% per annum for an equally weighted portfolio of commodity futures between 1950 and 1976. Their analysis reveals that equities are riskier than commodity futures. Furthermore, total return of the equally weighted commodity futures was negatively correlated with the return on long-term bonds, suggesting that commodity futures are effective in diversifying equity and bond portfolios. The benefits of diversification from commodity futures tend to be larger for longer holding. A similar analysis carried out by Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2005) confirms that commodity futures returns have been effective in providing diversification of both stock and bond portfolios. Weiser (2003), on the other hand, contends that commodity futures returns vary with the stage of the business cycle. He finds that commodity futures usually perform well in the early stages of a recession while stock returns are generally disappointing and in later stages of recessions, commodity returns fall while equities perform well. 2.3.3 Costs of Futures Contracts 2.3.3.1 Complexity Despite appealing benefits, futures contracts inherit some costs and the prime one is the complexity of handling them. Futures were generated to deal with the limitations of forwards but, in so doing, they brought a more complex form of hedging. Proper knowledge of the market is crucial; otherwise, hedgers may face unwanted losses. 2.3.3.2 Basis Risk Basis risk (the difference between spot and futures price) is inbuilt in futures market. Hedge positions are usually not perfect due to this difference. Working (1962) emphasises that the existence of basis risk prevents the elimination of all risks. Brorsen (1995) finds that changes in basis can cause forwards to be cheapest in some periods and futures to be cheapest in others. Therefore, the benefits of hedging can be enjoyed when the market is well understood. Advanced futures concepts about hedge positions, hedge ratios, and types of hedges should also be mastered as they benefit hedgers differently in different markets. 2.3.3.3 Mark-to-Market System (MTM)-cash drain out The transaction costs involved, such as, initial margin and variation margin in the MTM system freezes up working capital that could have yielded interest. Furthermore, the margin call should be paid before next opening of the market- a very short delay. These daily settlements make transactions volatile and cash flows cumbersome to maintain. Margin costs and brokerage commission discourage some investors, especially small traders, to enter the market. Williams (1986, 1987) shows that risk-neutral firms will hedge if transaction costs are lower in the futures market than in the cash market. Moreover, instances of dual trading exist, whereby brokers trade on behalf of their clients to earn a commission, without improving the customers position. 2.3.3.4 Large Number of Participants needed Futures contracts fail for lack of interest by market participants, that is, a low trading volume. Telser and Higinbotham (1977) statistically demonstrate that the benefit of an organised market is an increasing function of the number of potential participants and hence, an increasing function of the turnover of the potential participants in that market. They conclude that an organised futures market survive only if it is perfectly competitive, which is achieved when there are many participants. If the open interest (number of contracts outstanding) in the futures market declines, the volume of trade falls relative to the open interest. The commission and the margin are raised consequently. They even assert that there is a cost to the emergence and survival of an organised exchange. 2.3.3.5 Standardisation issues Standardised nature of contracts may cause over-hedging or under-hedging. For example, a contract specifies  £1000 to be sold while a hedger may need only  £800. Therefore, he over-hedges by  £200. Conversely, say a hedger needs  £1100, he under-hedges by  £100. 2.3.3.6 Uninformed Investors Increase Volatility Uninformed investors may increase price volatility in the futures market. If the market is inefficient in information, futures prices become biased predictors of future spot prices and causes cash prices and future prices to diverge rather than converge. Usually, futures contracts with longer maturity are closer to spot prices since time is required to assimilate unanticipated shocks. However, Kaminsky and Manmohan (1990) suggest that it is impractical to make any generalisations about the short-term and long-term horizons in commodity futures market. They find that for longer periods several markets are not fully efficient. In addition, Chernenko et al. (2004) study a wide range of futures and forward rates from financial markets and conclude that forward and futures prices are not generally pure measures of market expectations; per se, they may not be an efficient forecast of the future prices of assets. 2.3.3.7 Losses Faced By Investors Other studies indicate that large scale, professional speculators can profitably forecast commodity prices, but small traders cannot. Stewart (1949) considers futures-trading accounts for small-scale speculators and discovers that they face huge losses. Moreover, Houthakker (1957) and Rockwell (1967) find that large speculators earned profits and small speculators incurred losses for a particular set of data. Similarly, Working (1931) estimated that speculators in wheat futures, incurred losses. Empirical research shows that, for cattle and wheat producers, futures markets have lower transaction costs than forward contracts, while for small firms like farmers, the contracting costs might be higher because of opportunity cost of time in learning about futures, setting up a brokerage account, and managing margin calls. It would be unnecessary for small groups of traders, well acquainted with each other to transact among themselves than use futures. 2.3 Derivatives Mishaps The history of derivatives has witnessed some spectacular losses in the derivatives markets, which includes losses made by both financial (e.g. Amaranth hedge fund, Barings Bank) and non-financial institutions (e.g. Orange country, Shell, Metallgesellschaft). The Metallgesellschaft (MG) is a German oil company, which used futures to hedge its exposure in its early 1990s. MG hedged its position with long positions in short-dated futures contracts that were rolled forward. However, the price of oil fell and then came the margin requirements, which caused short-term cash flow pressures. Members of MG claimed that these were short-term cash outflows and in the long-run, there would be a cash inflow. However, this led to a serious issue as huge cash was drained out of the system. Consequently, MG executives closed out all their hedged positions. Therefore, one lesson to be learned is to be alert at all ti

Impact of Divorce on Children

The Impact of Divorce on the Family Sociology as defined by Sociology: exploring the architecture of everyday life is the systematic study of human societies (Newman, 2012). By studying human societies we can observe and understand how individuals interact with each other in society and the developing global system, but in order to understand these relationships we must look at society and the world at a different perspective. In turn a sociologist would be a scientist who studies human societies.A sociologist would be interesting in studying the topic of impact of divorce on children because it directly involves a relationship between two people. By studying divorce through a sociological perspective a sociologist can observe the causes that resulted in the divorce and the sociological implications it has on the nuclear family. Divorce is defined as the legal dissolution of marriage by a court or other competent body (Newman, 2012). The divorce rate in the United States is somewhere between 40-50 percent.The causes for divorce can vary greatly and can range anywhere from unhappiness with the marriage to extramarital relationships. In the 1950’s to the 1970’s divorce was only fault based meaning one spouse had to prove the other spouse committed a marital offense (Jolivet, 2012). Since the culture in the 1950’s was much different than it is now divorced couples were stigmatized, and their children were also labeled as outcasts from a â€Å"broken home†. It was also thought that children from a â€Å"broken home† had a higher chance of failing out of school or delinquency since there was an obvious lack of parenting.In the 1970’s divorce became more common and legislation changed, therefore, no fault divorce was introduced. Once divorce became more common, society became more accepting and divorce was not viewed as taboo anymore. Instead people now see divorce as another chance to be happy. Children of divorce were now v iewed as resilient instead of delinquents (Jolivet, 2012). The change in the way children were viewed comes from being able to cope with the loss of a family or growing up without living with a mom and dad.The effect of divorce on an individual’s life can be tremendous, it can impact almost everyone the individual interacts with. In an article by Greif and Deal (2012) they explained how friend networks would overlap with marriage and when that couple divorce that network is put at risk. It was found that after 8 months of separation men and women maintained 61% of that network but after 16 months only 50% of that network remained. The individual is important when it comes to observing effects of divorce.In a study done with 31 divorced women it was found that their physical appearance often changed as they struggled with their identity after divorce (Greif and Deal, 2012). This is most due to the high levels of stress before and after the divorce The impact parent arguing can have on the children could be very dramatic. A survey done by Dr. Robert Gordon that asked 1000 teenagers between the ages of fourteen and eighteen about their opinions on divorce concluded that the children wanted their parents â€Å"more than anything† to stay together (Jolivet, 2012).The survey also looked into children’s opinions’ on parent arguing and found that 50% of children think that parent arguing is â€Å"terrible† (Jolivet, 2012). There are different types of parental arguing, which can range from disagreeing, criticizing, screaming and physical confrontation. When children were asked about what arguing meant to them 39% said it involved disagreement, 26% said it was criticizing the other parent, but less than 35% said that arguing involved screaming or physical confrontation.Further research shows that most married couples agreed to occasionally arguing in front of their children. Dr. Gordon concluded that children are deeply affected by pa rental arguing and hopes that his research will make couples think twice about arguing or criticizing each other in front of their children (Jolivet, 2012). The social implications of parental arguing on children are mostly negative but in some situations can be positive. When children are exposed to a negative environment it threatens their emotional stability, which can result in depression, anxiety, and aggression.Although when parental conflicts are solved sensibly children learn constructive ways to settle arguments. Children learn to compromise and use compassion instead of aggressive behavior to solve disagreements. The overwhelming message that children of divorced parents try to convey is that they want more than anything for their parents to stay together. When teenagers were asked about what they would want their parents to know the majority said that it’s â€Å"Not easy for all of us† and â€Å"they don’t want to be blamed for it† or â€Å"ca ught in the middle† (Jolivet, 2012).This shows that the impacts of divorce and stress levels are not only felt by the individuals involved in the relationship but are felt almost as equally by the children. Children of divorced parents in present times are seen as resilient and being able to cope with difficult times. In a study done by Dr. Robert Gordon about teenager’s opinions on divorce found: Seeing parents divorced or growing up without mom and dad living together makes our whole view of life different.We become more independent and strong. Marriage and kids are not such a positive thing anymore/7 Kids also wanted their parents to know that, simply, they can handle the truth of the situation. (Jolivet, 2012) As a result of viewing marriage and kids differently teenagers who come from divorced families are more likely to have trouble with their own marriage. This is because children do not know what caused their parent’s marriage to collapse, therefore, are unable to maintain a successful relationship.The immediate effects of divorce on children is evident but there are usually no long term effects as they usually fall into the normal range of psychological and social adjustment (Jolivet, 2012). Although, the way the parents handle the divorce is the determining factor for long-term effects on divorce. The number one factor that puts a child at risk for long-term effects of divorce is the intensity and level of parental conflict prior, during, and after the divorce. For example, battles for custody can put high levels of stress on children as they have little control of the legal events and outcomes.If a child has to suffer through a high- conflict divorce it can double the rate of behavioral and emotional adjustment problems along with many more potential effects. Studies have also examined the effect of divorce on boys and girls as different groups. Data shows that the effect on boys was more immediate and dramatic. Boys were also mo re vulnerable to aggression and disruption. However, the effect on girls culminated over time and resulted in increased sexual promiscuity, skipping school, and acting out (Jolivet, 2012).This research concludes that the effect of divorce on children can be predicted by the conditions that existed before the separation. As children go through the stages of divorce with their parents they are observing everything that is going on, these observations could have a negative effect on how these children view marriage and divorce later in life. In a study of divorce done by Dr. Amato and Dr. DeBoer found that divorces were more common in children whose parents divorced than among children whose parents stayed married (Jolivet, 2012).When parents divorce the child is familiar and used to the subject and is more likely to view it much less benignly than a child who did not grow up with divorce in the household. This results in those children being more open to divorce if they are unhappy wi th their marriage. Children could also view marriage as an unpredictable relationship and love and commitment can come and go (Jolivet, 2012). Although adult children with divorced parents are more likely to get divorce does not mean they are doomed for an unsuccessful marriage, they just need to work a little bit more to keep their relationship strong and interesting.Divorce is a difficult topic for many people and can affect almost everybody connected to an individual in the relationship. In a family the individuals who opted for the divorce are obviously greatly affected as well as the children. Divorce can have many negative implications on children including social and behavioral problems as well as problems with their own marriage later in life. Unfortunately, everyone involved feels the negative results of divorce but the degree of that effect can be lowered if certain measures are taken prior to a divorce.Dr. Lisa Strohschein suggests that instead of focusing on helping chil dren after divorce, paying attention to what happens to the kids leading up to the divorce could lower levels of anti-social behavior (Jolivet, 2012). She also states that parents who help children cope with divorce and shape their attitude toward more positive associations could have a great effect on their mental health (Jolivet, 2012). Even though the negative implications of divorce are very prevalent I believe that they can be reduced to a degree where the effects are minimal.

Philippines Literature Essay

The diversity and richness of Philippine literature evolved side by side with the country’s history. Long before the Spaniards and other foreigners landed or set foot on Philippine shores, our forefathers already had their own literature stamped in the history of our race. Our ancient literature shows our customs and traditions in everyday life as traced in our folk stories, old plays and short stories. Our ancestors also had their own alphabet which was different from that brought by the Spaniards. –> LITERATURE: the body of oral and written works, text, books, poetry, etc. these are the several things that concern this subject. we have been exposed to literature ever since we were young. reading, writing, that’s what we do. but is this really the essence of literature? the time i realized that i was going to take up â€Å"Philippine Literature† this semester, i was rather a bit curios about what would be in store for me, for the whole class. our Literature instructor Ms. Dinah Laguna-Mission is very enthusiastic in teaching us. never came a time that i felt sleepy or bored during our lit. subject. she has a lively voice and pronunciation, lively gestures and the witty use of words were the things i looked forward to every time she came. at first, i expect that the subject content and the teaching method was just a repetition of what has been taught to us during high school. but i was wrong, the different genre of literature, different devices and ever famous figures of speech were the ones being taught to us. after all the experiences and new knowledge imparted to me, i realized that Literature is not only about just reading the stories, poems, riddles, etc. but either its understanding them deeply. i thank Ms. Mission for imparting this knowledge imparted to me and the whole class for making this journey bearable and truly enjoyable one. it was beyond doubt an accomplishment for us and so, even if i finish the subject Philippines Literature, the things i  learned, the memories and experience will truly mo no matter what. ^_^

La Nina Definition, Causes, and Impacts

La Nina Definition, Causes, and Impacts Spanish for little girl, La Nià ±a is the name given to the large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures across the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is one part of the larger and naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon known as the El Nià ±o/Southern Oscillation or ENSO (pronounced en-so) cycle. La Nià ±a conditions recur every 3 to 7 years and typically last from 9 to 12 months up to 2 years. One of the strongest La Nià ±a episodes on record was that of 1988-1989 when ocean temperatures fell as much as 7 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. The last La Nià ±a episode occurred during late 2016, and some evidence of La Nià ±a was seen in January of 2018. La Nia vs. El Nio A La Nià ±a event is the opposite of an El Nià ±o event. Waters in the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean are unseasonably cool. The cooler waters affect the atmosphere above the ocean, causing significant changes in climate, though usually not as significant as the changes that occur during an El Nià ±o. In fact, the positive effects on the fishing industry make La Nià ±a less of a news item than an El Nià ±o event. Both La Nià ±a and El Nià ±o events tend to develop during the Northern Hemisphere spring (March to June), peak during late fall and winter (November to February), then weaken the following spring into summer (March to June). El  Nià ±o (meaning the Christ child) earned its name because of its usual appearance around Christmas time. What Causes La Nia Events? You can think of La Nià ±a (and El Nià ±o) events as water sloshing in a bathtub. Water in the equatorial regions follow the patterns of the trade winds. Surface currents are then formed by the winds. Winds always blow from areas of high pressure to low pressure; the steeper the gradient difference in the pressure, the faster the winds will move from highs to lows. Off the coast of South America, changes in air pressure during a La Nià ±a event cause winds to increase in intensity. Normally, winds blow from the eastern Pacific to the warmer western Pacific. The winds create the surface currents that literally blow the top layer of water of the ocean westward. As the warmer water is moved out of the way by the wind, colder waters are exposed to the surface off the western coast of South America. These waters carry important nutrients from deeper ocean depths. The colder waters are important to fishing industries and the nutrient cycling of the ocean. How Are La Nia Years Different? During a La Nià ±a year, the trade winds are unusually strong, leading to increased movement of water towards the western Pacific. Much like a giant fan blowing across the equator, the surface currents that form carry even more of the warmer waters westward. This creates a situation where the waters in the east are abnormally cold and the waters in the west are abnormally warm. Because of the interactions between the temperature of the ocean and the lowest air layers, the climate is affected worldwide. Temperatures in the ocean affect the air above it, creating shifts in climate that can have both regional and global consequences. How La Nia Affects Weather and Climate Rain clouds form as a result of the lifting of warm, moist air. When the air doesnt get its warmth from the ocean, the air above the ocean is abnormally cool above the eastern Pacific. This prevents the formation of rain, often needed in these areas of the world. At the same time, the waters in the west are very warm, leading to increased humidity and warmer atmospheric temperatures. The air rises and the number and intensity of rainstorms increase in the western Pacific. As the air in these regional locations changes, so too does the pattern of circulation in the atmosphere, thereby affecting climate worldwide. Monsoon seasons will be more intense in La Nià ±a years, while the western equatorial portions of South America may be in drought conditions. In the United States, the states of Washington and Oregon may see increased precipitation while portions of California, Nevada, and Colorado may see drier conditions.

War Of 1812 Worst Fought War Essays - Exonumia, Military Personnel

War Of 1812 Worst Fought War Essays - Exonumia, Military Personnel War Of 1812 Worst Fought War A.P. History Essay on the War of 1812 The War of 1812 also know as The Second American War for Independance (Bailey pg. 233) was fought between the meeger forces of the American government and the supreme power of Great Britain. The war ended in 1815 with the treaty of Gehnt, this treaty wasnt really a treaty but an armastice or surrender of arms. The American military suffered from defeat after defeat during the begining of the war, these loses could be contributed to by the lack of citizen support in the time of war, also the lack in size and power of the American military. These factor validate the statement that the War of 1812 was the Worst fought American war. At the begining of the war America was fighting with Great Britain for regress of greivances such as forcefull impressment of sailors, and seizure of American cargos. Plus the extraction of British troups from the Ohio valley which was previously promised in two former treaties, Jays treaty and the Treaty of Paris. The regress of grievances was just a stepping stone for American ambition, after the start of the war Americans thought wouldnt it be great if we could add Canada and Spanish Florida to our ever expanding bounderies. But the backing of the war wasnt there politicaly the northern merchants were affraid of the deletion of trade options with Britain because of the war. The southern farmers were also against the war because Britain was there main purchaser of cotton and indigo. On the other hand you have to Backcountry farmers who need more room to expand there farms or find better soil for crops who wanted to the war to expand there expansion areas. Support also came from the deep southern farmers who wanted Florida for there own. The ideas between both of these groups created political disunity between the states, making them quarel among themselves weakening the national government. As we travel back a little in time we come to Jefferson's administration, he beleived in a week national government which also meant a week army. It is common sense that a week army cant defend a nation of mass proportions against a large army. Since the American army had been reduced by the Anti Federalist presidents, the army being the size it was just couldnt withstand such massive odds against it. The one strong part of the military wasnt the Army it was the Navy. It was well known that Britain had the best Navy in the world, for the simple knowledge that if you live on an island an invasion force isnt very good if you cant get to the country to attack it. America didnt need a strong navy for the simple reason its a large massive rock if your going to attack its usually by land so we need a large army. Well that turned out to be the simple opposite, but it wasnt the size of our navy it was the leadership under leaders such as Commador Perry. The lack of politcal unity was a large factor contributing to the treaty of the war, which was more like and armistice(implied lowering of arms of both parties). Without this treaty we would have inveribably been taken over by the British unless the army was increased. None of the states wanted to work with the other states so we stayed divided and nothing got accomplished. Since the country stayed ununified the army wasnt able to be raised and we kept losing. The combined factors of military and political disunity helped the nation to be unsucessful at its military conquests and self defense. With out a military of good size how are we to protect our country? Also without political togetherness we have no way of defending ourselves.All thes factors helped shape the war of 1812 as The worst fought American War.

The Diamond Necklace - Mathilde Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The Diamond Necklace - Mathilde - Essay Example Mathilde is truly happy only once in her entire life: at the ball. But, it becomes clear as the story progresses, that her happiness had a price all too high. On the night of the party her new dress and borrowed jewels give her the appearance of belonging to the wealthy world she aspires to. Because she believes herself rich for one night, she becomes rich in others’ eyes as well.  Fully at ease among the wealthy people at the party, Mathilde feels that this is exactly where she was meant to be—if it hadn’t been for the mistake of destiny. Her moment of happiness, of course, is fleeting, and she must spend the next ten years paying for the pleasure of this night. The saddest thing is that, despite all the hardship she is forced to endure during the next ten years, the memory of the night still lingers in her mind as the one perfect moment in her gray life. The necklace, beautiful but worthless, represents the power of perception and the split between appearance s and reality.

Car Insurance Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Car Insurance - Essay Example Due to the nature and dynamics of the car industry, it is faced with massive risks especially due to accidents which may occur at any time. Statistics indicate that the automobile industries faces the most number of accidents and property loss as compared to other sectors that other insurance policy covers, Laws in almost all countries forbid the driving of automobile without necessary insurance policy cover. Vehicle owners are faced by a big problem when it comes to the choice an insurance policy. Hasty policy buying often lead to wrong choices and huge loses are incurred by the insured person. According to (Malcolm 78), the first and the most important factor is the cost of the insurance cover, most insurance companies offer differing rate for a given policy. Before buying an insurance cover there is need for critical evaluation of the price. This can be done through requesting several companies to send their price quote for each car insurance cover. Cheap insurance premiums can be very deceptive, it is important that the car asks for and reads the whole insurance policy document before settling on the insurance cover policy. There are different insurance packages each covering a different set of individual protection. Some of these include; Third Party Insurance; which is a very cheap cover and protects the insured from third party risks e.g. fire and car theft. Body Injury; which pays up to certain coverage limit, injury and death to the people with the operator of the car at the time of the risk. Defense costs; which are incurred during the law suit are also covered. P roperty Damage; which pays up to a given coverage limit for the other vehicles involved in an accident in which you are legally responsible for the accident. Medical Expenses; pays for all hospital bill, doctors and funeral expenses to those injured in accidents. Uninsured And Underinsured covers all pain and suffering that are not covered by the medical cover. Collision Coverage ; covers damage for the vehicle up to a given limit, Compressive Cover; full policy that pays for up to a given specified amount for vehicle damage, vehicle loss and damage due to theft, floods, fire, vandalism, hail. It covers for all expenses regardless whose fault it was. It's a general requirement for those with car loans. Rental Reimbursements; pay up to a given specified limit, the charges for rental services when your vehicle is being repaired. Labour and towing (breakdown cover), covers for charges incurred in transporting a damaged vehicle to the garage. Delivery of oil battery and other accessorie s are covered but their actual costs aren't included (Sternberg 143) the payment method is another vital consideration which is dictated by the amount of money at hand during a given duration (Vaughan 241). Depending on the vehicle owner cash inflows, he can decide to pay insurance premiums yearly or the policy can be paid in monthly installment. Monthly installments are preferred by many but are more expensive as there in a small additional cost charged because of paying over a period (Rogers 133) Another very important factor is where the car owner lives, with the advancement of technology, insurance covers are availed online, it is however important to